by Kim Workman
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkbEOD26Diohn4og3WpeyHk7kQ4rxYt0qobD6artNItgkCR2Cw1nHzacR8piMWRejPiOBfo84p5KbvD99EGh_NQtJXDYh80BFOlLyIqPxWrgLcHJDcA9NyAEKemXs6cp9ynaj2AaTmWUog/s1600/Crime+Reduction.png)
The strategy has been successful on a number of fronts. First, it wrenched political parties and the
punitive public away from the ‘tough on crime’ rhetoric; the triennial bidding
war and the ‘rush to punish’. Second, it
changed the nature of the debate from “What Should We Do?” to “How Should We Do
it?” Third, it gave government agencies
the opportunity to propose strategies based their current understanding
about ‘what works’. Finally, it presented justice sector agencies
with a set of targets, which they were required to meet.
The Government developed six action plans to deliver these results:
·
Support
repeat victims
·
Target
repeat locations
·
Increase
alcohol and drug treatment in the community
·
Strengthen
rehabilitation and re-integration services to prepare and support people to
live law-abiding lives
Reporting
on Progress
From the outset, government-generated publicity promised a major reduction in overall
crime, rather than a reduction in recorded crime. In July 2012, Minister Judith Collins, announced the new strategy:
“2011 saw the lowest crime rate in thirty years.
Resolution rates continue to increase, and even violent crime – which had been
rising – has stabilised. But for a victim of crime, that one crime is too many.
Even on top of recent gains, achieving these targets will mean 112,000 fewer
crimes between now and 2017 – and thousands fewer victims.”
Fast
forward to March 2014, when Minister Anne Tolley
in a media release, referred to a drop of 17.4% in recorded crime, and went on to say that the target
of a 25 per cent reduction in reoffending by 2017, will result in huge benefits
for communities and taxpayers;
“It will mean safer streets, with
18,500 fewer victims of crime each year, as well as 4,000 fewer community
offenders and 600 less prisoners in jails.”
The following month, Minister Collins in reporting on progress until December 2013, again made no mention of whether the
reduction was in the actual crime rate,
or the recorded crime rate.
“New Zealand now has the lowest crime rate
since 1978 but most importantly, the results mean New Zealanders are
experiencing around 56,000 fewer crimes a year, leading to fewer victims of
crime.
What
Does the Public Understand these Results to Mean? – A Social Network Survey
Rethinking Crime and Punishment became concerned at the
considerable public confusion about what these figures meant, and how they would
be achieved. It ran a survey through its
social networks, to find out what respondents understood these progress reports
to mean. We didn’t have the resources to
run a random survey, and the results do not represent the views of all New
Zealanders. Nevertheless, the results gave
indications as to the confusion inside and outside government circles around how
the government evaluates success in crime reduction strategies. We decided to publish the result, given that
the public interest outweighed the limitations of a non-random sample.
We then asked David Harpham, former Principal Strategic
Analyst, Department of Corrections, to report on the survey. David is both highly experienced and highly
respected. His report makes some
important observations about the current gap that exists between survey respondent’s preferred
crime evaluation measure, (i.e. a reduction in reported crime), versus the
Minister's crime evaluation measure, (i.e. a reduction in recorded crime).
Summary
of Key Results:
Reductions
in Crime Questions
1. Reported (rather than
recorded) crime was the most popular measure of crime for respondents. Reported
crime data was even more popular when considering violent crime.
2. Respondent answers produced a consistent pattern over different contexts.
3. Respondents generally believed that the minister's reporting aligned with the respondents' own interpretation, even when this was not the case.
4. Typically less than a quarter of respondents (including Justice sector employee respondents) identified with the current Police “recorded crime” approach as their preferred best metric for evaluating crime reductions.
2. Respondent answers produced a consistent pattern over different contexts.
3. Respondents generally believed that the minister's reporting aligned with the respondents' own interpretation, even when this was not the case.
4. Typically less than a quarter of respondents (including Justice sector employee respondents) identified with the current Police “recorded crime” approach as their preferred best metric for evaluating crime reductions.
Reductions
in Reoffending Questions
1. Most respondents (80%)
selected that re-offending reductions should be evaluated by measuring
re-convictions.
2. Most respondents selected
that re-offending should be measured for anyone with a conviction. This differs from the way official figures
are currently produced which relate only to those with sentences managed by
Corrections. It is not clear if
respondents understood the difference and that convictions include all those
with fines as well.
3. A few respondents thought
the measure for re-offending reductions should only be about released
prisoners.
4. Respondents generally seemed
to believe that the minister's reporting aligned with the respondent's own
thinking. This was not usually the case.
Other Observations
Justice Sector Staff Equally Confused
There was a surprisingly high rate of
Department of Corrections' (verified by IP address) senior staff and other
Justice sector involvement but the observations and the responses were not seen
to be greatly different between Justice and non justice respondents. Given this high Justice sector representation
one might reasonably conclude that even Justice officials don't greatly
understand the metrics being used to assert crime reduction success.
Other Means of Measuring Crime Reduction
The choices offered in the survey did not
include any options to measure crime outcomes more directly and independently
of Justice sector budgets. For example,
one could measure insurance burglary claims and hospital visits for person on
person injury and the use of community surveys. Offering such choices would
have improved the scope of the survey usefulness.
Recorded Crime Rates are not Direct
Measures of Offending Rates
The Minister regularly presents crime
recording rates and re-conviction rates as if they are direct measures of
offending rates. The reality is that
both of these measures depend in large part on Justice sector budget and processing
decisions. If you stopped all policing
you would stop recording crime and also stop recording re-convictions but this
would not mean crime has reduced. More
focus on diverting young offenders will reduce re-convictions, but offences may
still have taken place pre-diversion.
The current Police and Corrections approaches to measuring crime targets
are prone to abuse by spin doctors.
Use of Rates rather than Totals of
Reconviction
Even more confusing is to use rates
rather than totals of re-conviction as measures to indicate progress. The difficulty here is that the total
convictions of recidivists can have increased even when the re-conviction rate
has gone down. The opposite is also
true. The rate only provides a
measure of the relative concentration of Justice engagement with recidivist
offenders versus Justice engagement with non recidivist offenders. A successful decrease in the number of
recidivists could easily be masked by a proportionate decrease in the number of
non recidivists processed. The rate or
proportion might be the same despite big successful changes.
An example of the reporting problem might
help. If 30 out of 40 released recidivists were re-convicted and 60
non-recidivists were also released then Corrections would report a 30% re-conviction
rate (30/100). However if we had a successful rehabilitation program the next
year with only 20 out of 40 released recidivists re-convicted along with also
having a successful diversion program for non-recidivist types so that only 20
of these passed through prison and were released then Corrections would report
a 30% re-conviction rate (20/60). No apparent change but a radically different
dialogue. Similar examples can be envisioned where things have got worse but
the numbers actually look better.
Following Treasury Advice
In July 2013, Treasury wrote a
background paper for the long term fiscal strategy that identified
opportunities to deliver better Justice Sector Outcomes in the short term.[1] It advised the Justice sector to
‘tell a clear and compelling story on justice sector performance, focussing more on what is being achieved and less on how services are provided’
Tht advice has led to regular updates on the reduction of crime and reoffending, but very little information on how that has been achieved.
‘tell a clear and compelling story on justice sector performance, focussing more on what is being achieved and less on how services are provided’
Tht advice has led to regular updates on the reduction of crime and reoffending, but very little information on how that has been achieved.
That advice has created a
public knowledge gap, confirmed by our survey.
There must be a growing suspicion of the validity of the statistical
information in the absence of detailed information about how the reductions
were achieved. If the story is to be ‘clear and compelling’, then the public
need to understand not only what has been achieved, but how.
In our view, the advice from Treasury has been
misinterpreted, and conflicts with advice given earlier in the report that
“Consensus
across the sector and with the wider public about how best to deliver the aims
of a safe and just society is required. [2]
Rethinking’s
Position
We are emerging from two weeks of “Dirty Politics” – a time
when the dark underbelly of New Zealand politics has been seriously exposed,
and our confidence in the integrity of politicians seriously undermined. If the BPS Reducing Crime and Reoffending
strategy is to succeed, it is critical that it quickly overcomes the
credibility gap that is starting to develop, between what is happening, and
what the public is told is happening.
There has to be clear and transparent access to information, and an
understanding of what the justice sector is doing, and why.
We are supportive of pre-charge warnings, alternative
dispositions, and approaches which keep people (especially young offenders)
away from the formal criminal justice system.
The evidence is clear, that actions of that kind reduce reoffending over
the long term.
Failure to provide clear information and to be honest about
what is happening, will only serve to fuel scepticism and doubt about its
effectiveness. That kind of approach
excludes the need to come up with spectacular reported outcomes, which on
closer scrutiny, may not stack up. We
should rejoice in any improvement, however modest.
Addressing the ‘Democratic Deficit’
“It
appears that trust in statistics presented by politicians is high and clarity
in measuring outcomes is low. This is
unlikely to be a healthy combination for informed democracy.”
David Harpham
A ‘democratic
deficit’ exists when there is any situation in which there is believed to be a
lack of democratic accountability and control over the decision –making
process. It includes a situation in
which there is a gap between public expectations and the government’s
performance and policy; between what they expect of the system, how they expect
it to work, and their influence on it.
There
is a gaping hole between the government and the public in relation to the BPS
Strategy. It needs to be addressed,
preferably when the justice sector meets to review its BPS targets, and set new
ones.
Last week Ministers Bill English and Jonathan Coleman announced
that after the election, they intended to
raise the BPS target and reduce the total crime rate by 20 per cent from June
2011 to June 2017 – up from the current target reduction of 15 per cent. We would urge caution – first let’s have an
increase in transparency and accountability before further confusing the
public.
An Independent Evaluation Mechanism
“It is time to call for a capable and independent body to
provide transparent evaluation of total criminal harm. A healthy democracy
needs this to confidently assess the merits of the coercive arm of
government”.
David Harpham
There is growing concern at the lack of independent
evaluation of programmes within the justice sector, and claims of success in
the absence of independent assessment. Incentivisation
brings its own challenges. Any review
of the BPS Reducing Crime and Reoffending Strategy, should consider the extent
to which it relies on government agencies to report their own success or
failure, and whether there is sufficient external audit of performance.
It would seem highly likely that there are some real good
news stories underlying the statistics. We like to think this because we like
the ‘What works’ roots of recent changes and we support the stated good
intentions of the new initiatives. But
it also seems highly likely that given the lack of independence for the only
statistics available that we cannot be certain of the scale of the real social
gains and we must be even less sure about attribution for any improvements.
Watch
out for Our Next Blog:
Keep an eye out for Part Two – coming out tomorrow.
Understanding
the BPS Reducing Crime and Reoffending Plan –
Part
Two –Reducing Reoffending – Pushing the Boat Out
[1] NZ Treasury . ‘Windows of Opportunity to Deliver
Better Justice Sector Outcomes over the Long Term’- Background Paper for the
2013 Statement on the Long Term Fiscal Position, July 2013. http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/longterm/fiscalposition/2013/pdfs/ltfs-13-bg-bjso.pdf
[2]
Treasury Paper, p.12
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